Functional Estimation and Change Detection for Nonstationary Time Series


Journal article


Fabian Mies
Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 118(542), 2023, pp. 1011-1022


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APA   Click to copy
Mies, F. (2023). Functional Estimation and Change Detection for Nonstationary Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 118(542), 1011–1022. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1969239


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Mies, Fabian. “Functional Estimation and Change Detection for Nonstationary Time Series.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 542 (2023): 1011–1022.


MLA   Click to copy
Mies, Fabian. “Functional Estimation and Change Detection for Nonstationary Time Series.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 118, no. 542, 2023, pp. 1011–22, doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1969239.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{mies2023a,
  title = {Functional Estimation and Change Detection for Nonstationary Time Series},
  year = {2023},
  issue = {542},
  journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  pages = {1011-1022},
  volume = {118},
  doi = {10.1080/01621459.2021.1969239},
  author = {Mies, Fabian}
}

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null hypothesis of no change. In this article, estimators for integrated parameters of locally stationary time series are constructed and a corresponding functional central limit theorem is established, enabling change-point inference for a broad class of parameters under mild assumptions. The proposed framework covers all parameters which may be expressed as nonlinear functions of moments, for example kurtosis, autocorrelation, and coefficients in a linear regression model. To perform feasible inference based on the derived limit distribution, a bootstrap variant is proposed and its consistency is established. The methodology is illustrated by means of a simulation study and by an application to high-frequency asset prices. 

Keywords: bootstrap inference; gradual change; locally stationary process; p-variation

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