Rate-optimal estimation of mixed semimartingales


Journal article


Carsten Chong, Thomas Delerue, Fabian Mies
Annals of Statistics, accepted for publication, 2024

arXiv
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APA   Click to copy
Chong, C., Delerue, T., & Mies, F. (2024). Rate-optimal estimation of mixed semimartingales. Annals of Statistics, accepted for publication.


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Chong, Carsten, Thomas Delerue, and Fabian Mies. “Rate-Optimal Estimation of Mixed Semimartingales.” Annals of Statistics accepted for publication (2024).


MLA   Click to copy
Chong, Carsten, et al. “Rate-Optimal Estimation of Mixed Semimartingales.” Annals of Statistics, vol. accepted for publication, 2024.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{carsten2024a,
  title = {Rate-optimal estimation of mixed semimartingales},
  year = {2024},
  journal = {Annals of Statistics},
  volume = {accepted for publication},
  author = {Chong, Carsten and Delerue, Thomas and Mies, Fabian}
}

Consider the sum Y=B+B(H) of a Brownian motion B and an independent fractional Brownian motion B(H) with Hurst parameter H\in(0,1). Even though B(H) is not a semimartingale, it was shown in [Bernoulli 7 (2001) 913--934] that Y is a semimartingale if H>3/4. Moreover, Y is locally equivalent to $B$ in this case, so $H$ cannot be consistently estimated from local observations of Y. This paper pivots on another unexpected feature in this model: if B and B(H) become correlated, then Y will never be a semimartingale, and H can be identified, regardless of its value. This and other results will follow from a detailed statistical analysis of a more general class of processes called mixed semimartingales, which are semiparametric extensions of $Y$ with stochastic volatility in both the martingale and the fractional component. In particular, we derive consistent estimators and feasible central limit theorems for all parameters and processes that can be identified from high-frequency observations. We further show that our estimators achieve optimal rates in a minimax sense.


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